May 2013

Colony Farm, Coquitlam, BC, Canada (25 May 2013)

  • Baltimore Oriole (First-time)
  • Cedar Waxwing
  • American Goldfinch
  • Rufous Hummingbird
  • Tree Swallow
  • Violet-green Swallow
  • Barn Swallow
  • Northern Rough-winged Swallow (First-time)
  • Common Yellowthroat
  • Mallard
  • Spotted Towhee
  • Song Sparrow

Missed: Lazuli Bunting


Final results were known early in the night. Timeline is PDT Vancouver on May 15, 2013. Reports are from CBC.

8.00pm Polls closed.

8.17pm Richmond East was the first riding to report in with some numbers.

8.50pm LIB 47, NDP 28, GRN 2, IND 3

9.00pm LIB 49, NDP 34, GRN 1, IND 1

9.10pm LIB 51, NDP 32, GRN 1, IND 1

9.20pm LIB 50, NDP 33, GRN 1, IND 1

Does anyone know what percentage of votes were counted by 9.20pm? My guess is between 10-20% of votes were in by 9.20pm. In How to Measure Anything, Douglas Hubbard argues that you don’t need to measure everything to get a high degree of accuracy (say 90%) so long as your sample is truly random.

Based on the accuracy by percentage of final overall results:

8.50pm LIB 94%, NDP 85%, GRN 50%, IND 33%

9.00pm LIB 98%, NDP97%, GRN 100%, IND 100%

9.10pm LIB 98%, NDP 97%, GRN 100%, IND 100%

9.20pm LIB 100%, NDP 100%, GRN 100%, IND 100%

So one hour after polls closed, we already had 97% degree of accuracy of the overall election results. Does anyone know how many votes were counted as of 9.00pm?

How did the advance polls get it wrong? Was their sample truly random? Did the people they polled actually vote?